Uganda coffee prices have dropped sharply due to global oversupply and rising harvests from Brazil and Vietnam. These countries are the world’s largest coffee producers. Consequently, the price fall affects farmers and exporters struggling to stay profitable in a flooded market.
The price drop relates to the C-price, a benchmark for green Arabica coffee traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York. This price sets the global standard and also affects Robusta and specialty coffees that often sell above it. According to Dr Gerald Kyalo, commissioner of Coffee Development at Uganda’s Ministry of Agriculture, when major producers forecast good harvests, prices fall worldwide.
For two years, drought limited coffee supply from Brazil and Vietnam, which pushed prices higher. However, recent forecasts now predict Brazil’s harvest at 61 million 60-kg bags. Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to produce 31 million bags in 2025/26. This surge has created a global glut, thus pulling prices down. As a result, Uganda is feeling the impact.
On Ugandan farms, prices have fallen noticeably. Robusta FAQ, the most traded coffee, sells between Shs10,000 and Shs11,000 per kilo, down from Shs13,000–Shs14,000 just weeks ago. In rural areas, prices dropped further to around Shs8,000. Likewise, Robusta Kiboko prices fell to Shs5,000–Shs5,500 per kilo, while green bean coffee prices dropped from Shs3,000 to Shs1,500 per kilo. However, Arabica parchment remains stable at Shs14,000–Shs15,000.
Farmers like Mr Wilberforce Owor from Ibanda District call the situation disastrous. He says that the costs of fertilizer, labor, and transport now exceed earnings. Therefore, many farmers are holding back coffee, hoping prices will rise again.
Global trading data confirms the slump. For instance, on the London International Financial Futures Exchange, Robusta futures for July dropped by $174 to $5,052 per tonne. Meanwhile, New York’s Arabica futures fell by 14.8 US cents to 372.95 cents per pound.
The USDA forecast shows increased production from Brazil and Vietnam. Moreover, global coffee output should rise by 6.9 million bags in 2024/25, mainly due to Vietnam and Indonesia’s recovery. Analysts warn that the oversupply will keep prices low for some time.
Uganda’s coffee exports have been strong, totaling 7.4 million 60-kg bags worth $2.09 billion between June 2024 and May 2025. This is up from 6.08 million bags the previous year. In May 2025, Uganda exported 47,606.7 tonnes worth $243 million, making it Africa’s top coffee exporter for the month.
Key export markets include Italy, Germany, Spain, India, Sudan, Belgium, China, Algeria, the US, and Morocco. However, despite growing volumes, exporters earn less per kilo. A UCDA official explains that Uganda must diversify into value-added processing. Otherwise, farmers remain vulnerable to price shocks.
According to USDA, Brazil is the largest coffee producer with 66.4 million bags annually. Vietnam is second with 30.1 million. Uganda ranks sixth, producing 6.4 million bags. Dr Kyalo says Uganda cannot match Brazil’s volume. However, Uganda can invest in quality, branding, and local processing, which will help protect farmers from price swings.
In summary, Uganda coffee prices drop amid global oversupply, creating serious export challenges. Therefore, farmers and exporters must improve quality and add value to stay competitive in the global market.
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